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Background to this Website

Purpose of this Site

This interactive site is intended to offer insight into the Giant Sequoia National Monument Draft Environmental Impact Statement, in particular how the Forest Service rated the alternatives and what their rationale was in doing so. It is not a commenting website.

Interested in commenting on the Draft Environmental Impact Statement? Follow this link:

There are many opportunities to link from this website to specific places in the Draft Environmental Impact Statement - which sits on another website. If you want to go straight there, please follow this link:.

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Services Provided

Slideshow overview of this website

There is a narrated slideshow giving an overview of the website (or click here for a PDF version).
        

This website provides a richly hyperlinked table, "Find Out," containing many of the key points in the Forest Service's analysis. It also links to specific parts of the Draft Environmental Impact Statement, tailored to the website visitor's interests. A short narrated slideshow gives a tour of this section.

Slideshow for Find Out

    Watch this narrated slideshow or click here for a PDF version.
        

The website also provides an interactive Multi-Criteria Decision Support experience called "Be the Boss." This, too, has a brief explanatory slideshow.

Slideshow for Be the Boss

    Watch this narrated slideshow or click here for a PDF version.
        

Slideshow for Be the Boss Graphs

    Watch this narrated slideshow or click here for a PDF version.
        

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Key Assets of the Website

Many people, public and agency alike, participated in the development of the multi-criteria decision framework that underpins this website, as well as in the evolution of the design and aesthetics of the website. The decision framework proved to be a very useful way to organize much of the information from the Forest Service's analysis.

The "Find Out" Table

"Find Out" is the right place to go if a person wants to be taken very quickly and efficiently to the heart of the Forest Service's thinking and to gain quick access to specific parts of the Draft Environmental Impact Statement.

For National Environmental Policy Act outreach to work to the benefit of the resource, the public, and the agency, busy people need to go straight to the kernel of an issue. And what that 'kernel' is will differ! One of our challenges was to deliver the information people wanted, on the topics that interested them, to the degree they wanted it. This needs to be done elegantly, without requiring a big investment in learning a new system or wading through a lot of verbiage. Above all, we realize that 'transparency' in government means more than delivering large quantities of information. That is important. But it is analogous to the basement of the building, filled with boxes and boxes of important yet overwhelming information. Transparency also requires a good entrance and a map.

That's what "Find Out" is meant to be. Coming to our website, within two clicks a visitor will see a table clearly summarizing the Forest Service's key ratings. Two more clicks and the visitor can be at the Forest Service's rationale. This document tells you not only the what, but the why. It connects the dots between what the Forest Service knows about the resource and how they apply that knowledge. Just as they did in a public meeting last June, the Forest Service opens up their assumptions to the public.

"Find Out" is also a great way to access the Forest Service's Draft Environmental Impact Statement for people who want to do selective reading. The rationales are hyperlinked to the specific relevant text.

In a way, "Find Out" is just a fancy table of contents, adorned with compelling graphic summaries and amped up with 21st century hyperlinking. But that is not really what makes it special. What makes it special is that it isn't our table of contents: it is a collaborative creation between the public and the Forest Service, built with much discussion and many evolutions: the decision framework. It is a grass roots table of contents.

Why does that matter? We know there are still imperfections, and that some individual's special passions will not be reflected in this organization, but we are confident that it will resonate strongly with many people's interests in the Monument. It is analogous to Frank Lloyd Wright's approach to putting in sidewalks: let people walk around a little first, then put the path (or in this case, the fancy table of contents) where they seem to have an interest in going.

The specialists who wrote the Draft Environmental Impact Statement provided the rationale. They started with early drafts and discussed those in a public meeting. They continued with challenging internal discussions about their rationale and ratings, in the process clarifying vocabulary and assumptions among themselves. Therefore, when a member of the public looks at the actual ratings developed by the Forest Service - as they can within seconds of arriving at the website--they are not seeing a collage created by a public affairs person. "Find Out" represents the thinking by the Forest Service along the paths or alternatives developed with the public. They did in fact use "a common platform for outreach and analysis" as promised by Forest Supervisor Tina Terrell at the outset of this planning process.

Be the Boss

If "Find Out" is for people who want quick access to lots of information, "Be the Boss" is designed for people who like to mull things over.

Because Alternative F rates so highly in the agreed upon criteria, the result of the "Be the Boss" exercise will almost always show Alternative F as the most satisfactory. Putting in ratings for 'feasibility' can change that dynamic.

Why bother, then, with "Be the Boss?" First, "Be the Boss" may be just right for people who understand a thing best by being able to move some of the pieces around - in this case, the moveable pieces are the relative importance of the criteria. If one really wants to understand (and agree or disagree with) the Forest Service's draft ratings for Alternative F, "Be the Boss" will certainly drive those home. As well, the graphs at the end of "Be the Boss" provide alternative ways of thinking about the ratings information. In fact, simply advancing through "Be the Boss" without putting in weights can be worthwhile if, for instance, a person wants to compare two alternatives using the "head to head" feature at the end of that section.

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Providing Comments on the Draft Environmental Impact Statement

Comments on the Draft Environmental Impact Statement will be assessed and considered and may be used by the Forest Service to refine their analysis. Substantive comments, whether prompted by this website or a reading of the Draft Environmental Impact Statement, will be addressed in the Final Environmental Impact Statement.

Interested in commenting on the Draft Environmental Impact Statement? Follow this link to find out more about commenting.

We hope this website provokes comments, perhaps particularly powerful and insightful comments. For instance, let's say a person finds her way to the rationale for rating alternative X higher than alternative Y for the subcriterion "aesthetics." The Forest Service has said that X rates higher for aesthetics because of higher chance of "unwanted" fires. The reader knows of research that says that some people appreciate the aesthetics of burned areas; she wants to challenge the Forest Service to consider that research as they review their analysis. She argues that Y should be rated higher for aesthetics and that that should influence how the Forest Service compares the alternatives. Will that comment be eligible to be considered a substantive comment? Yes, it will.

Forest Supervisor Tina Terrell says:

"All substantive comments obtained through this process will be analyzed and reviewed."

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Role of the U.S. Institute for Environmental Conflict Resolution

Congress established the U.S. Institute for Environmental Conflict Resolution to help resolve environmental disputes that involve the federal government by providing mediation, training, and related services. The Institute, through a memorandum of agreement with the Forest Service, has been fostering collaboration and transparency in the development of the Giant Sequoia National Monument Plan. The Institute's roster member, Carie Fox, with decision scientist Philip Murphy, worked with the public and the Forest Service to develop a decision framework that reflects key interests among stakeholders.

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Role of the US Forest Service

The Forest Service is the ultimate decision-maker for the Giant Sequoia National Monument Draft Environmental Impact Statement. Forest Supervisor Tina Terrell made a strong commitment to transparent, traceable, and collaborative plan development. This site is an example of pioneering efforts to bring collaboration to people who cannot participate in more time- or travel-demanding ways. Supervisor Terrell has a passion for reaching out to people--more people, different kinds of people, and even people who are new to the Monument and its splendors.

The Forest Service wrote the rationale, the materials under the "comment" tab, and the documents under the "Draft Environmental Impact Statement document" tab.

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Reporting

The results from the online Multi-Criteria Decision Support used during the general scoping period--the relative importance people assigned to the criteria and subcriteria--were reported. Nothing from this website will be reported (we have to keep temporary information inside the "Be the Boss" section so that we can run the program for you, but we do not keep the information and therefore we do not report on it).

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Multi-Criteria Decision Support: The Elements of a Decision

Multi-criteria decision support is a century-old decision support tool that relies on a common-sense organization of decision elements and some very simple mathematics. The process is described in some detail in the PDF article Multi-Criteria decision Support". A much more entertaining slideshow captures the approach at InfoHarvest's website.

As part of a Science Review process, the use of MCDS was reviewed by Dr Keith Reynolds of the Pacific Northwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service.

Criteria, subcriteria

Criteria are the things that matter in evaluating alternatives for a particular goal. If the goal is to buy a car and the criteria are cost and safety, then those are the things you will use to compare the alternatives. How much does Car A cost when compared to Car B? How safe is Car A when compared to Car B?

For the criterion "cost," there might be subcriteria such as sticker price and maintenance cost. Figuring out what people mean by "cost" is an important part of developing collaborative capacity. If the parties to a decision are not clear about what they mean by cost, they certainly cannot be clear to the larger public! This system simply takes the pieces of a decision and gets people to be more explicit about them, which turns out to be very powerful. (It also makes something like the "Find Out" table possible.)

For the Giant Sequoia National Monument, the criteria were developed through these steps:

• Mediator (Carie Fox), on behalf of the U.S. Institute for Environmental Conflict Resolution, interviewed stakeholders over several months and prepared an initial list of criteria.
• In open meetings, she worked with the Sequoia Monument Recreation Council (now the Giant Sequoia National Monument Association) to develop the recreation portion of the criteria and subcriteria.
• She worked with the Forest Service to develop a second draft of the criteria.
• In a series of meetings, as well as general scoping meetings and an online experience, she and her colleague Philip Murphy worked with the Forest Service, other agencies, and the public to refine the decision framework.
• Through the Forest Service's analysis for the Draft Environmental Impact Statement, Carie and Philip worked with the Forest Service and the public to refine the criteria, subcriteria, definitions and--most importantly--the rationale.

The Forest Service was faithful to the collaboratively developed criteria. However, the Forest Service did not feel it could rate the criterion "feasibility." This is discussed below in A Note About Feasibility.

The criteria and subcriteria were an interesting way to ask the Forest Service about their thought processes when they compare the alternatives. It also become a useful "table of contents" for people to access the Draft Environmental Impact Statement.

To see the final criteria and subcriteria, click this icon:

Weights

In the car example, cost and safety were the concerns. Let us say Car A does better for cost, and Car B does better for safety. You can analyze cost and safety to a fare-thee-well, but you still won't have a decision. To make a decision, you need to say how much safety and cost matter to you--not in the abstract, but for this car-buying decision.

The Forest Service has not articulated their weights, and we have not pressed them to. Because the draft analysis rates Alternatives F and B so well compared to the other alternatives, it probably doesn't matter. (It is as though Car A were safer and less expensive--belaboring the relative importance of safety and cost does not make much sense. Car A will always come out ahead.)

Rules

The heart of Multi-Criteria Decision Support is the ability to analyze trade-offs. For instance, one person might be willing to risk the loss of individually-named giant sequoia in order to increase the likelihood of restoring natural fire processes. Another might not. But the Forest Service does not have unlimited latitude to make trade-offs: they are bounded by law, rule, the Proclamation, and other "untrade-ables." In Multi-Criteria Decision Support terms, we call these "rules."

It doesn't make much sense to ask the public, in "Be the Boss", to weigh how much complying with the Proclamation or the Endangered Species Act matters to them. Even the "boss" has a decision space she has to stay within. For that reason (and because "Be the Boss" is so complicated already) we left the criterion "comply with the law" off of the matrix.

The Draft Environmental Impact Statement is really the best place to explore those legal issues.

Alternatives

The Forest Service developed draft alternatives, shared these drafts with the public, and worked together to improve them. To see a brief description of the alternatives, click here.

Ratings

The Forest Service rated each alternative on how well it would be expected to meet each subcriterion. Assigning equal importance to all of the subcriteria, a cumulative rating was given to each criterion. These are the ratings you see in the table.

To see the subcriteria ratings, just click on any one of the horizontal bars.

It should be clear we are not asking you to agree or disagree with the ratings! What we want is to help you get to the parts that most disturb or please you, and provide you with easy access to information supporting highly effective comments.

Rationale

If a person wanted to say that Car A had cheaper maintenance than Car B, he probably has a rationale: he considered the information from Consumer Guide, he considered the distance to the nearest garage, and he upgraded Car A because he thought the windshield wipers were less likely to be stolen. If he articulates this rationale, it becomes something people can agree or disagree with or provide insight about. "Did you know there's a new garage being built right around the corner?" or "But Car B has an anti-windshield-wiper-stealing gizmo."

In the rationale for the ratings, the Forest Service articulated their approach in rating the alternatives. This rationale is consistent with the Draft Environmental Impact Statement analysis.

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Multi-Criteria Decision Support: Combining Ratings and Weights

In "Be the Boss," we typically would use Multi-Criteria Decision Support to combine your weights with the Forest Service's science and answer the question "how would you decide?" We're not trying to push you to accept (or reject) the Forest Service's science! If the combination of your weights and the Forest Service's science gives a result that sits well with you, well and good. If your reaction is "that can't be right!" we provide the tools to zoom in to the parts that most go against your instincts or knowledge. It might be something missing from the decision framework. It might be the ratings. Or you may want to test your values with different combinations of weights.

From there, we take you to the Forest Service's rationale and to the related text of the Draft Environmental Impact Statement. Along the way, we hope Multi-Criteria Decision Support has transformed your reaction into the basis for a really effective comment, if you choose to make one.

But what do we mean when we say "combine your weights with the Forest Service's ratings?" There's a mathematical explanation below (and it is very simple math). As well, if you are a visual person, you may enjoy a video on our website. We offer a document that covers the material in a readable but slightly more academic way. But for now, the short answer is: we take how well an alternative does for a subcriterion (the rating) and multiply it by how much that subcriterion matters. In the car example, if you care a lot about safety and Car B is really, really safe, it should score very high. If you barely think safety matters, its safety will not be likely to make much of a difference in the decision.

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How does the Computer Calculate the Results in Be the Boss?

The results are calculated using simple arithmetic: your values multiplied times the ratings.

In the car example, imagine that Joe weighs the criterion "safety" as critical to him. This is the top level of the scale, so we'll call that a weight of 10.

Meanwhile, the Car Expert Association has estimated how well each of the cars does for the criterion "safety." Car A has a rating of 0 for safety, Car B is a 4, and Car C is an 8.

Now take Joe's value (10) and multiply it times the ratings, so he gets
    Joe's Car A for safety= 0 (weight of 10 times rating of 0)
    Joe's Car B for safety= 80 (weight of 10 times rating of 8)
    Joe's Car C for safety= 40 (weight of 10 times rating of 4)

By contrast, Nadja gave "safety" a weight of 5. Take her values and get:
    Nadja's Car A for safety= 0 (weight of 5 times rating of 0)
    Nadja's Car B for safety= 40 (weight of 5 times rating of 8)
    Nadja's Car C for safety= 20 (weight of 5 times rating of 4)

Take the same approach for all the criteria (beauty, efficiency, etc), and sum up those products to calculate Joe's overall score for the three cars based on all the criteria, but weighing the things that matter to Joe more heavily than the things that don't matter much to Joe.

Joe's result will be a product of how well each car did for each of the criteria and how much he cared about the criteria.

Likewise, Nadja's result will be a product of how well each car rated and how much the criteria matter to her. Her most satisfying result will be different than Joe's, even though they are both using the same Car Expert Agency's ratings. (They could, of course, decide there was something that didn't jibe for them about the ratings, and question those... that is analogous to the commenting process.)

In a simple decision, there are a lot of variables to keep track of. Just for the car example, if one assumes four criteria and three alternatives, there are 12 ratings. That's more than Joe can keep in his brain at one time! What Joe does--what we all do--is bypass the overwhelming complexity and jump to conclusions based on only a few of the things that matter.

It is important to gut-check the decision framework and its ratings. If your gut tells you there is something wrong, this approach gives you a chance to dig in and figure out where the problem is, then suggest a fix.

For more information, check out our multicriteria decision document, read Hammond, Raiffa and Keeney's book Smart Choices, or watch our crossing-the-road narrated slidehow.

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A Note About Feasibility

As we mentioned above, feasibility (in its various forms and wordings) was a criterion from the outset. When, during general scoping, people put their weights on the criteria (when they said how much each criterion mattered to them), one of the things we were interested to see is whether a criterion like "feasibility" would receive emphasis when compared with, say, "manage fire" or "increase enjoyment." It did.

"Feasibility" is meant to get at the likelihood a given alternative will be implemented in a timely way. The subcriteria, by the time we reached the Draft Environmental Impact Statement commenting stage, were:

• Likely to foster individual support
• Likely to foster broad community support
• Provides clear direction for the Forest Service

In general, the idea of using Multi-Criteria Decision Support in environmental analysis is to have the agency (or a collaborative group) provide the ratings: predicting how well each alternative will do for each subcriterion. The Forest Service did provide the ratings for all the subcriteria except "feasibility."

This means two things. First, as a practical matter, if a citizen wishes to run the Multi-Criteria Decision Support model and include "feasibility," he will have an opportunity to rate each alternative's feasibility himself. Second, depending on how much feasibility matters to him, and how he rates the alternatives, it is possible for the "Be the Boss" section to result in a different "lead alternative."

We do not emphasize this because we have a preconception about which alternative should come out ahead. Our point is that when one alternative dominates, the "Be the Boss" section has few tradeoffs. When feasibility is thrown into the mix, "Be the Boss" becomes more interesting.

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Multi-Criteria Decision Support After the Draft Environmental Impact Statement

After the Draft Environmental Impact Statement, Multi-Criteria Decision Support's greatest usefulness for this planning process arises from its ability to summarize the Forest Service's analysis of the agreed upon criteria and present it in a traceable, "findable," and accessible manner. The Forest Service committed to using the decision framework, ratings, and rationale as a way to reflect the Forest Service's thinking about the alternatives through the scoping and analysis processes. Regardless of where they come from, substantive comments received may prompt the specialists to review and revisit the rationale and the ratings and to make changes to the Draft Environmental Impact Statement.

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Interim Analysis of Multi-Criteria Decision Support for the Giant Sequoia National Monument Draft Environmental Impact Statement

After we complete this website, and we provide a brief "lessons learned" of the overall mediation, facilitation, and web design experience, our work with the Giant Sequoia National Monument planning process will be complete. For now, in the interest of transparency, it seems appropriate to provide a few initial thoughts about factors influencing the design of this website.

As all projects do, this turned out differently than we had expected. When we overhauled our concept for this website, we learned a great deal about our own tool. Our focus would have been on "Be the Boss" and the myriad benefits we saw therein, which we describe in the Intro to MCDS PDF. Yet as we redesigned, we saw something that has been increasingly obvious when we use Multi-Criteria Decision Support in workshops: that the organization of decision elements with flip chart and fat pens may be as worthwhile as the mathematics of Multi-Criteria Decision Support.

One of our deeper goals is to reach and empower more people using the internet. Making reams of data available does not help most citizens. Describing impacts in detail is important, but it does not help the public understand exactly how a decision is made. Our dream is to make information available to the public in the way they want it: the topics they want to focus on, the depth they want to go, and the pieces they need in order to "get" the decision. In particular, we feel that the ratings of the alternatives and the rationale provide very meaningful, yet quickly accessible insight into the Draft Environmental Impact Statement. (Interestingly, they also seem to foster deep discussion by the analysts, so portions of the decision-making process may be enhanced, in addition to making the results of the analysis more "findable.")

The next decades will see vast improvements in the way this is accomplished. We would, someday, like to see more seamless integration of the Draft Environmental Impact Statement and the materials provided here. The technology, aesthetics, logistics, and simplicity of language all need to improve. Interlinking with maps is particularly important for the future. However, we think our simple "Find Out" table is a worthy step in the right direction.

Your feedback will help us take the next step.

Common Platform

As we continue to gain experience, we become more and more convinced of the importance of working outreach and analysis from a common platform. If people are learning about a project, and commenting on it from the same frame of reference as the Forest Service specialists, there is a higher probability that the public's comments will be salient and that the specialists may use them and benefit from them.

The goal of creating "a common platform for outreach and analysis"--having the Forest Service use Multi-Criteria Decision Support in their planning as well as in their outreach--was an ambitious one and a qualified success. Again, as we gain experience with different projects, we realize that a qualified success in this arena is a worthy accomplishment! There are a lot of moving parts.

To make the "common platform" work, the Forest Service's analyses had to match up to a large extent with the criteria and subcriteria. The ratings had to be provided by the Forest Service, the rationale had to support it, and both the ratings and the rationale had to be consistent with the Draft Environmental Impact Statement. In reaching for this goal, staff was brought into public and private discussion about what their underlying thinking was. The conversations were gratifying to observe and facilitate, and there is no doubt that they challenged deep thinking and better communication. Assumptions about costs, aesthetics, recreation approaches, or ecological systems were brought to the forefront and debated. Terminology that had included unknown miscommunications was surfaced and cleared. These benefits applied throughout the planning process, internally and externally.

For the analyses of specific criteria, the use of Multi-Criteria Decision Support ranged from seamless and wholly committed use of Multi-Criteria Decision Support--as with recreation-- to intermittent reconciliations between the decision framework and National Environmental Policy Act analysis. In the latter case, Multi-Criteria Decision Support was not so much a common platform as an extra (albeit useful) piece of homework. In the ideal world, Multi-Criteria Decision Support used for the planning process wouldn't be extra work. But in the real world of pilot projects and the Giant Sequoia National Monument planning project, it's probably true that everything in the range from 'completely seamless' to 'intermittent reconciliations' brought us to a remarkably more meaningful and powerful outreach platform.

Perhaps the true test lies in the comments the Forest Service receives and in what the Forest Service does with them.

Tradeoffs

One of Multi-Criteria Decision Support's benefits is helping people struggle with realistic trade-offs, the kinds of things (as we said in numerous public meetings) that would keep the Forest Supervisor up at night. The Multi-Criteria Decision Support framework holds those tensions. The alternatives developed by the Forest Service in collaboration with the public were different enough that they allowed the exploration of those tensions. But over time, the alternatives started to "smoosh" together.

Transparency - Procedural criteria

This website and the use of Multi-Criteria Decision Support provide for more 'findable' information about the Forest Service's decision-making process. We believe it will be easier for many people to zoom in on the information they want quickly and efficiently, and that it helps trace a connection between the Forest Service's analysis and their preferred alternative.

One lesson driven home by our observations of the Giant Sequoia National Monument planning process is the impact of limiting procedural criteria. The Forest Service, understandably, was most comfortable with criteria and subcriteria such as "protects individual threatened and endangered species" or "protects diversity of flora and fauna species." These things are difficult to measure or predict, but at least the measures relate back to things one can count on the ground. We advocated that the decision framework include more procedural criteria, such as "flexibility," because we knew that flexibility mattered to the Forest Service and to stakeholders. But flexibility doesn't relate back to something one can measure on the ground. It is not traditional for land management agencies to include procedural interests. At the same time, the longer the list of criteria and subcriteria, the more complex and daunting the decision framework becomes. Therefore, most of the subcriteria reflecting such issues as "flexibility" were culled early.

Evaluating the transparency Multi-Criteria Decision Support can bring to a decision, we would advocate more aggressively for including criteria that matter, whether they are procedural or not. In the rationale pages on this website, and in the Draft Environmental Impact Statement, a member of the public can trace the importance of flexibility if they dig deeply enough into the actual ratings. Ideally, from our perspective, if flexibility were so pivotal, it would have been drawn out as a separate criterion.

Completeness: Relationship Criteria

The problem with relationship criteria went deeper. In interviews, workshops, and general scoping comments, the public expressed (a) a distrust of the Forest Service and a related desire to see a plan that would be clear and enforceable, and (b) an interest in seeing an alternative that would be implementable (i.e., not tied up in court, able to rally volunteer and external grant support, and so forth).

Trust was identified as an issue by the Forest Service in their analysis of general scoping comments. In public meetings, the connection between public trust, Forest Service accountability, and the likelihood of receiving community support (or active objection) was deemed important. These intertwined factors remained as a criterion, with many name changes, throughout collaborative development of the criteria, reaching some stability with the criterion of "feasibility" and the subcriteria of "individual support," "community support," and "clear Forest Service requirements." The problem lay in rating this criterion and subcriteria. The Forest Service felt it was more appropriate for the public to rate "feasibility," mainly because they felt it is the public's perception of their own individual and community support of an alternative and not how the Forest Service perceives the support each alternative will garner that matters.

We agreed that all the criteria should stay in, and that the public could provide ratings for "feasibility." This has the unintended consequence of making the "Be the Boss" section much more complicated than we would have wished.

After the comment period for the Draft Environmental Impact Statement, we will attempt to summarize issues in greater detail and, of course, we will address other observations, questions, and critiques raised by the public using our beautiful feedback button.

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Request for Feedback

Yes, there is a feedback "cone" on the top right of the masthead above:

We would really like to know what you think of this site and how we might improve it.

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